Politics / Labor
Absence Makes the Vote Grow Farther: Emigrant Voting Patterns Across 180 Homeland Elections
with Eva Østergaard-Nielsen and Nicolas Fliess
Accepted · American Journal of Political Science
Where emigrants settle shapes who they support back home.
Abstract
Emigration reshapes political landscapes, yet studies question to what extent and under what circumstances emigrants support democracy in their countries of origin. Research suggests that migrants, especially those moving to more democratic countries, already have or tend to adopt stronger pro-democratic attitudes. However, evidence on how this impacts voting behavior in homeland elections is inconclusive. We assemble a comprehensive dataset that captures emigrant votes by country of residence across 180 homeland elections worldwide. Using panel regressions with various fixed effects specifications, we show that migrants’ residence in more democratic countries is associated with more support for pro-democracy parties in homeland elections, though this pattern reverses in scenarios of larger ‘democracy gaps’. Leveraging a staggered difference-in-differences design, we further demonstrate that the parliamentary presence of anti-immigrant parties in countries of residence increases emigrant support for pro-democracy parties at home. These findings advance debates on migration and transnational democratic engagement.
Politics
Pride and Prejudice: Impact of National Days on Patriotism and Attitudes Toward Immigrants
with Nicolas Fliess
Working paper
National days cool nationalism where countries are ethnically divided.
Abstract
Patriotism, an individual sense of pride to belong to a country, is often considered by states as an important factor to secure citizen support. Yet this feeling may go beyond mere national allegiance, as it can significantly shape perceptions of out-group members. While past research has explored the interconnectedness of state-sponsored patriotism, national identification, and attitudes toward immigrants, robust empirical evidence on how these factors relate remains scarce. This paper explores the mechanism through which states foster patriotism and how this, in turn, influences attitudes toward immigrants, focusing on state-sponsored patriotism through national day celebrations given their global prevalence. We assemble a global dataset of publicly available surveys consisting of 2.7 million observations from 1985-2023. Employing an event-study design, we measure exposure to the national day as the temporal difference between survey dates and these celebrations. Leading up to the national day, citizens exhibit a lower sense of patriotism and continue to do so a few days after, returning to pre-national-day levels within two weeks. This negative result is primarily driven by countries with higher ethnic fractionalisation. We argue that in highly diverse countries, individuals are more likely to resist a unifying state narrative, becoming more open to inclusive or pluralistic conceptions of belonging, reflected in more positive attitudes toward immigrants.